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    A sentencing alternative for sex offenders: Long-term follow-up of child molesters: For example, the 15 year estimate for boy-victim child molesters Department of the Solicitor General of Canada. An examination of sex offender case histories in federal corrections. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 21, Figure 3 Image Description Figure 3 is a survival graph showing the proportion of sexual offenders against children who have not sexually recidivated over time.

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    Survival time until suspension for sex offenders on conditional release. Overview of recidivism studies. Another difference is that Doren attempted to generate life-time estimates whereas our estimates extend only to 15 years. This supposition is unlikely to be true. Other studies have found similar results. Paper presented at the rd annual convention of the American Psychological Association: The probability of recidivism for an individual offender will be the same as the observed recidivism rate for the group to which he most closely belongs. Nevertheless, the decreasing rate of offending with age suggests that the rates observed after 15 to 20 years are likely to approximate the rates that would be observed if offenders were followed for the rest of their lives. Doren's estimates were also based on charges, whereas most of the recidivism data in the current study was based on convictions. The horizontal axis is labelled "Time in years" and has values ranging from zero at the start left to 20 at the end right. In statistical language, the expected mean value for the individual is the same as the group mean, but the variance of the mean is much greater for the individual estimate than for the group estimate. Department of the Solicitor General Canada. Journal of Offender Rehabilitation, 23, The horizontal axis is labelled "Time in years" and has values ranging from zero at the start left to 16 at the end right. The relationship between treatment goals and recidivism among child molesters. The rate of sexual re-offence is quite likely to change over time due to social factors and the effectiveness of strategies for managing this population. Recidivism rates among child molesters and rapists: Sexual Abuse, 9, The ATSA report on the effectiveness of treatment for sexual offenders. The vertical axis is labelled "Percentage of offenders that have not sexual recidivated over time" and has values ranging from zero at the bottom to at the top. Long-term follow-up of child molesters: A year follow-up of offenders. The horizontal axis is labelled "Time in years" and has values ranging from zero at the start left to 22 at the end right. Not all sexual offenders, however, were equally likely to reoffend. A Journal of Research and Treatment, 14 2 , In the following 5 years, follow-up years 6 through 10, you would expect a further 7 rapists to reoffend for a total of 21 offenders failing after 10 years. The psychology of criminal conduct, Third Edition.

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